Excerpts from National Journal
By: Ronald Brownstein
February 2, 2012
“The Gallup state-by-state average approval numbers for 2011 released this week don’t necessarily predict where President Obama will finish on Election Day, but they do measure the hill he must climb to win re-election.
“The most important number in presidential elections, of course, is 270 – the number of Electoral College votes it takes to win. The best way to examine the Gallup numbers is to measure them against that yardstick.
“In 2010, if you sorted down from Obama’s highest approval rating to his lowest, he could reach 270 Electoral College votes by carrying the 22 states plus the District of Columbia where his approval rating stood at 46.9 percent or more…
“In the 2011 numbers, the situation looks much more difficult for Obama. From 2010 to 2011, Gallup found, his average approval ratings dropped in every state except Connecticut, Maine and (oddly enough) Wyoming. As a result, to reach 270 Electoral College votes based on the 2011 numbers, he would need to win 20 states plus the District of Columbia where his approval rating stands at 44.5 percent or more…
“Obama in 2010 could reach an Electoral College majority by carrying states where his approval rating stood at least at 46.6 percent, something that would be difficult but hardly impossible. To reach a majority based on the 2011 results, he’d need to carry states where his approval stood at 43.7 percent or above. That’s a much more daunting prospect…
“In 2011, the states in which Obama’s approval rating exceeds 50 percent-enough to make him a clear favorite-have a combined total of 159 Electoral College votes. His rating stands between 47 percent and 49.9 percent in states with another combined 56 Electoral College votes. That means he’s favored at least somewhat in states with 215 Electoral College votes. That’s a big decline from 2010, when he stood above 50 percent in states with 175 Electoral College votes and from 47 to 49.9 percent in states with another 84, for 259 favored votes…
“The implication is that the number of states Obama can plausibly contest to reach 270 Electoral College votes is narrowing…in 2010, Obama’s approval rating stood at 47 percent or above in New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, Ohio and Nevada, all states he carried in 2008. His average 2011 ratings fell below that level in all five states…
“These Gallup numbers show how much work awaits the Obama campaign, not only in states at the border of the emerging Democratic coalition like Virginia, Florida and Nevada, but some, like Pennsylvania and Oregon that have been part of its core since 1992.”
Click Here To Read The Full Article: http://bit.ly/xjb00P
###
Republican Party Stanislaus
Take action
