“Why Obama Should Be Worried”
Excerpts from POLITICO: “To hear Democrats (and much of the media) tell it, President Barack Obama is a man on the rebound…
“There is a big problem with this Pollyanna punditry: There are bunch of real-time numbers coming in that tell a much different tale.
“In short, there’s a new Congressional Budget Office report that shows unemployment likely to climb to nearly 9 percent by the election, there’s polling data showing Obama tied or trailing…in the most important swing states…and there is mounting evidence that the assumption of a decisive Obama fundraising advantage for the fall might be flat wrong. All of this is happening while Republicans are at their worst…spending millions of dollars and using all of their air time explaining why the other is untrustworthy, deeply flawed and eminently beatable by Obama…
“A new CBO report grabbed lots of headlines for projecting the deficit will top $1 trillion this year — making Obama the first president ever to pile up $1 trillion or more every year in office…
“The CBO projects unemployment will rise, hitting 8.8 percent in the third quarter of the year, the heart of the campaign. That’s terrible politics. Obama advisers have told us repeatedly on background that if unemployment is above 8.5 percent in the final months of the campaign, it will be extremely hard, if not impossible, to win. The advisers say independents will not return to Obama if it looks like economic growth is anemic and uncertain and it looks like his policies did little, if anything, to create new jobs under his watch.
“Economists seem divided on the question of whether robust enough economic and job growth can happen in time for Obama to benefit…
“If Obama is on the rebound, someone forgot to tell swing voters in the most important up-for-grabs states in 2012.
“Gallup, which both parties praise for its detailed appraisals of voters’ moods, just crunched the numbers in the 12 states that can authentically be called swing states. The results were hardly great news for Democrats…
“Gallup also reported some disturbing national news Monday for Team Obama: The president had a 50 percent or better approval rating last year in only 10 states and the District of Columbia. In five states that could decide the election…Obama’s slide has been steep and uniform…
“This is a 50-50 country. If Obama can’t win independents and can’t win the swing states, he can’t win reelection…
“Obama fundraising has not been as strong as many Democrats had hoped or anticipate. More troubling for Democrats, there are signs that Republicans…could match the most prolific fundraiser in the history of presidential politics…”
Read the Full Article Here: http://politi.co/zVlX0r
“Reelection Rumblings for Obama”
Excerpts from The Hill: “Recent economic reports could have the Obama White House worried.
“All of the reports suggest the pace of economic growth is still slow, and that unemployment could rise, and not fall, by the end of the year…
“Here’s why the White House should be nervous:
“The Federal Reserve has announced it will keep interest rates low through 2014, a sign of its pessimism about the pace of the economic recovery.
“The Commerce Department found the nation’s economy grew at a 2.8 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, a faster pace than the rest of the year but worse than expected. If the economic growth slows in the next quarter, it will be tough to keep unemployment down.
“The Congressional Budget Office projected a wider budget deficit and rising unemployment for the rest of the year, with the jobless rate expanding to 8.9 percent by the end of the year, when Obama goes to the polls. Rising deficits and unemployment would give Romney and Republicans potent weapons to use against the White House.
“Housing remains a problem. The Case-Shiller index again found that home prices across the country fell 1.3 percent in November from October in its most recent survey. Until home prices rebound, voters will lack confidence in the economy’s future, and Obama needs them to feel better about the direction of the country…
“The fight for the White House might be determined by how quickly workers return to the labor force. While the official unemployment rate is 8.5 percent, actual unemployment is much higher since the official statistics don’t include people who have dropped out of the labor force…
“Zandi said some older workers who have left the workforce because their unemployment benefits have expired might never come back, an argument that suggests the labor force will not expand.
“Obama three years ago said he’d be held accountable if the economy didn’t improve. ‘If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s gonna be a one-term proposition,’ Obama told ‘Today Show’ anchor Matt Lauer, speaking on the economy.
“The next 10 months will tell the story.”
Read the Full Article Here: http://bit.ly/zCpQh2
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