Excerpts from USA Today
By Susan Page
December 13, 2011
“President Obama is moving to energize the Democratic base for his re-election campaign, but in the case of a dozen battleground states, he’ll have to work harder than four years ago to find it.
“A new USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll finds the number of voters who identify themselves as Democratic or Democratic-leaning in these key states has eroded, down by 4 percentage points, while the ranks of Republicans have climbed by 5 points.
“Republican voters also are more attentive to the campaign, more enthusiastic about the election and more convinced that the outcome matters.
“The contrasting conditions of the nation’s two major political parties — discouraged Democrats and resurgent Republicans — underscore how different Obama’s re-election campaign is from the contest four years ago.
“Consider the math: In 2008, when Obama carried the swing states by 8 percentage points, Democrats there swamped Republicans in party identification by 11 points. Now, that partisan edge has tightened to a statistically insignificant 2 points.
“And the ‘enthusiasm gap’ that helped fuel a Democratic victory last time has turned into a Republican asset. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year, compared with 47% of Democrats.
“Among the most enthusiastic are some of the GOP’s core voters: conservatives, middle-aged men and those 50 to 64 years old. Those who are least enthused include core Democratic groups that were critical to Obama’s election in 2008, including minorities and younger voters.
“‘Enthusiasm is a tremendous benefit,’ Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus said in an interview. ‘We’re going to be able to mobilize a grass-roots army. It helps us recruit volunteers and run absentee-ballot programs. We can fill rooms with people making phone calls and going door-to-door.’
“He says enthusiasm has shifted to the GOP because voters who were inclined to favor Obama in 2008 now see him as ‘a fraud’…
“These Battlegrounds — chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographic trends — are up for grabs. Obama carried all of them in 2008 and needs to claim half of their electoral votes this time to win a second term…
“In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%…
“This time, Republicans are more likely to be paying a lot of attention than Democrats — 69% to 48% — and they are more likely to say the election’s outcome will make a major difference to the course of the economy.
“That doesn’t necessarily mean they avidly support one of the GOP contenders. For many, it means they avidly oppose Obama.
“The antipathy to the president will help Republicans unite behind their nominee whoever he or she is, says Doug Gross, who in 2002 was the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee in Iowa, one of the swing states…
“Among Democrats, economic woes weigh on some who had hoped Obama would be able to bring about more of the change he promised.
“The demographic groups who provided his highest levels of support in 2008 are the same ones who have been hit hardest by the nation’s slow economic recovery.
“While the nation’s overall unemployment rate dropped to 8.6% in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that African-American unemployment actually rose from October to 15.5%. For those 20-24, it was up to 14.2%. The jobless rate for Hispanics was unchanged at 11.4%.
“‘I thought more would get done,’ says Andre Donaldson of Burgaw, N.C…
“The decline in the number of voters who identify themselves as Democrats — and the rise in those who call themselves independents — complicates the president’s re-election strategy.
“In the swing states, the number of self-identified Democrats (not including those who lean Democratic) fell from 35% to 30% since 2008. The number of independents rose 7 points, 35% to 42%.
“‘It means that the votes that President Obama needs to cobble together are going to be made up more of independents than they were last time,’ says Lanae Erickson of Third Way…
“Obama’s problem: Independents by definition aren’t loyal to a party’s nominee. And the full-throated appeals that help energize the Democrats’ most loyal partisans — African Americans, liberals, Hispanics and others — can put off independent voters…
“The nation’s ideological makeup creates more stress for Democrats than Republicans. In the 12 swing states identified by USA TODAY, 44% of those surveyed are conservatives, more than double the 21% who call themselves liberal.
“To win a majority, the GOP needs to attract the lion’s share of conservatives plus only a fraction of the 35% who call themselves moderates.
“In contrast, the Democratic candidate has to claim the solid support not only of liberals but also most of the moderates…
Click Here To Read The Article: http://usat.ly/sq5ITD
###
Republican Party Stanislaus
Take action
